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由于近来工业正发生着令人始料不及的变革,要想详细预测铁路行业的前景也许是非明智之举。但有五大方面的观点很可能影响新世纪开初十年铁路行业的发展。在铁路领域,愚蠢者才大胆预言未来,而聪明者正在费尽心机了解过去。由于铁路行业近年来经历了如此之多的变化,以致令人始料不及,因此,我对那种详细的预测心存疑惑。仅在二十年前,谁能预测到集中经济会崩溃及由此而给原有的国有铁路造成的冲击呢?谁又能预测到欧委会会颁布91/440指令呢? 几乎无人会认真辩析,在发展中国家,普遍拥有小轿车的发展趋势将不会走发达国家的老路,如是之,那又将如何呢?我确信会有
Given the unexpected changes that have taken place in industry lately, it may not be sensible to predict the future of the railway industry in detail. However, there are five major points of view that are likely to affect the development of the railway industry in the first decade of the new century. In the field of railroads, stupid people boldly predict the future, and wise people are trying their best to understand the past. As the railroad industry has undergone so many changes in recent years that it is unexpected, I’m skeptical of that detailed forecast. Only twenty years ago, who predicted the collapse of the centralized economy and the resulting impact on the existing state-owned railway? Who could predict that the European Commission would issue the Directive 91/440? Almost no one would Earnestly argue that in developing countries, the trend of universal ownership of cars will not follow the path of developed countries. If so, what will happen? I am sure there will be