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该文在分析我国苹果生产及价格波动特点的基础上,利用传统的蛛网模型和扩展的蛛网模型,分别对1991~2013年苹果价格的波动进行了实证分析。结果表明:扩展的蛛网模型更接近现实经济状况,且更具有解释力;扩展模型结论显示我国苹果价格波动属于收敛的蛛网模型,也即苹果市场内在的规律和调节功能,能够有效实现苹果供需的动态均衡。
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of apple production and price fluctuation in our country, this paper empirically analyzes the fluctuation of apple prices from 1991 to 2013 using the traditional cobweb model and the extended cobweb model. The results show that the extended cobweb model is closer to the real economic situation and more explanatory power. The extended model conclusion shows that the fluctuation of apple prices in China belongs to the cobweb model of convergence, that is, the inherent laws and regulatory functions of the apple market can effectively realize the supply and demand of the apple Dynamic equilibrium.