论文部分内容阅读
人们对世界经济形势的普遍看法已变得愈发乐观,原因显而易见。高收入经济体似乎终于开始复苏,美英两国尤为如此。但前路仍然坎坷,特别是欧元区。对新兴国家而言,高收入国家增长势头转强既有好处,也有坏处。如果说欢喜之情是威胁稳定的因素之一,那么它在2014年应该不会太常见。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的预测奠定了今年世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)达沃斯年会的基调。IMF将今年全球经济预计增长率微幅上调至3.7%(仅比2013年10月《世界经济展望》报告中的数字高0.1个百分点)。但IMF将英国的预计增长率上调了0.6个百分点,将日本和西班牙的这个数字各上调了0.4个百分点,将德国和美国的这个数字各上调了0.2个百分点。
The reason why people are generally optimistic about the world economic situation has become more optimistic. High-income economies seem to be finally recovering, especially in the United States and Britain. However, the road ahead is still bumpy, especially in the euro area. For emerging countries, the growth of high-income countries is both good and bad. If the feeling of joy is one of the factors threatening stability, it should not be too common in 2014. The International Monetary Fund’s forecast laid the tone for this year’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The IMF raised the projected rate of growth for the global economy this year to a slight increase of 3.7% (just 0.1 percentage points higher than the figure reported in the October 2013 WEO report). However, the IMF raised Britain’s projected growth rate by 0.6 percentage points, up 0.4 percentage points from Japan and Spain and up 0.2 percentage points from Germany and the United States.