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房价一直是老百姓生活中关注与讨论的热门,房价的高低不仅关乎着人民的安居,还是国家持续稳定发展的指标。自2008年金融危机戳破房价的泡沫引发巨大灾难以来,房价仅在2009年有所收敛,之后持续升高。房地产股板指数是人们衡量房价的一个指标,那么,是哪些因素引起房地产股板指数的变动?影响机制是什么?这些问题将是本文讨论的重点。本文运用定性与定量相结合的办法。首先,采用多元线性回归方法,以房地产股板指数为因变量,分析2008-2014年期间引起价格变动的宏观因素;其次对显著性影响因素进行脉冲响应函数分析与方差分解;最后就如何稳定房地产股板指数提出相应的建议。
Housing prices has always been the focus of attention and discussion of ordinary people’s life, the level of the price is not only related to people’s livelihood, or the country’s sustained and stable development of indicators. Since the bubble burst in 2008 after the financial crisis triggered a huge disaster, house prices only converged in 2009 and continued to rise thereafter. Real estate stock index is one measure of housing prices, then, what are the factors that led to changes in real estate stock index? What are the impact mechanism? These issues will be the focus of this article. This article uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. First of all, using the multiple linear regression method, taking the real estate stock index as the dependent variable, this paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors that caused the price change during the period of 2008-2014. Second, it performs the impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition on the significant influencing factors. Finally, on how to stabilize the real estate Stock board index made the corresponding recommendations.