我国地震预报研究概述

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文中全面介绍了1966~1996年我国地震预报研究历程及所获得的主要成果。针对我国大陆地震活动频度高、强度大、分布范围广、震源浅、地震灾害严重的特点,以大陆板内地震活动规律和前兆观测研究为主要目标的我国地震预报研究,着重从我国地震及前兆观测台网建设和预报方法研究、中长期地震预测研究和地震重点监测防御区确定以及中短期地震预报研究三方面进行了艰苦的探索,并取得了一些有减灾实效的较成功预报实例。三十年来的地震预报实践表明,地震是有前兆的,但由于板内地震活动及前兆现象极其复杂、多样,我国中长期预报水平提高较快,而短临预报的水平和能力仍很低,需要把我国的地震预报研究长期深入地坚持开展下去。 The paper fully introduces the research progress and main achievements of earthquake prediction in China from 1966 to 1996. Aiming at the characteristics of high frequency, strong intensity, wide distribution, shallow source and serious earthquake disaster in mainland China, this paper studies the earthquake prediction in China based on the seismic activity law and precursor observation in continental plate, Precursor observatory network construction and forecasting methods, long-term and long-term earthquake prediction research and the confirmation of earthquake focus monitoring and defense area, as well as short-term and medium-term earthquake prediction studies. Some successful examples of disaster prediction have been obtained. Since 30 years of earthquake prediction practice shows that the earthquake is a precursor, but due to the extremely complex and diverse seismic activity and precursors in the plate, the medium and long term forecast level of our country increases rapidly while the level and capability of short-term and medium-term forecast are still very low. We need to carry on our study of earthquake prediction in our country for a long period of time.
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