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简要地回顾了现有的地震区划方法，针对综合概率法需要进一步解决的“地震活动性时空不均匀性”问题，提出了包括趋势项、周期项、随机项和白噪声项等内容的结构模型及用于模型选择的指标系统。在结构模型中，不同的项用自适应等不同方法进行标定，其和就是震级上限的预报值。为了获得震害要素的空间扩散参数，建立了大型的中国历史地震灾情信息系统（２３００Ｂ．Ｃ．～Ａ．Ｄ．１９９０）。利用求得的震级上限值及空间扩散参数，求出场点的具有某种超越概率的烈度值（Ｐｍａｘ）或最大概率最大烈度值（Ｉｍａｘ）。
A brief review of the existing seismic zoning method is presented. In view of the problem of “spatial heterogeneity of seismicity” that need to be further solved by the integrated probability method, structural models including trend items, periodic items, random items and white noise items are proposed And index system for model selection. In the structural model, different items are calibrated using different methods such as adaptation, and the sum is the forecast value of the upper magnitude limit. In order to obtain the spatial diffusion parameters of seismic damage elements, a large-scale historical earthquake disaster information system for China was established (2300B.C. ~ A.D. 1990). Using the obtained magnitude upper bound and spatial diffusion parameters, the intensity value (Pmax) or the maximum probability maximum intensity value (Imax) with some kind of transcendental probability of the field point is obtained.