基于项目风险评价的完备性原则,将模糊评价理论与层次分析法相结合,在概率统计基础上,通过蒙特卡洛方法对京津城际铁路项目的风险性进行模拟,并做出综合评价。 Based on the principle of completeness of project risk assessment, fuzzy evaluation theory is combined with AHP to simulate the risk of Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway project by Monte-Carlo method on the basis of probability and statistics, and a comprehensive evaluation is made.