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文章运用脉冲响应和方差分解的方法,以制造业工资为研究对象,考察了1978~2006年间人民币实际汇率波动的福利效应。实证分析表明人民币贬值在短期内确实有助于提高我国制造业工人的实际工资,但从长期来看,是无效的。在目前制造业内部面临产业结构调整、外部经受金融危机冲击的背景下,人民币汇率的稳定和适度贬值有助于改善制造业工人的福利,但长期内必须通过改变制造业增长模式,优化制造业产业结构,加大制造业按劳分配的力度等根本措施来促进制造业工人福利的增长。
By using the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition, taking the manufacturing wage as the research object, this paper examines the welfare effects of RMB real exchange rate fluctuations from 1978 to 2006. Empirical analysis shows that the devaluation of the renminbi indeed helps to raise the real wages of China's manufacturing workers in the short term, but in the long run, it is ineffective. Under the background that the internal manufacturing industry is faced with the adjustment of industrial structure and the external experience of the financial crisis, the stable and moderate devaluation of the RMB exchange rate will help to improve the welfare of manufacturing workers. However, in the long run, we must change the mode of manufacturing growth and optimize the manufacturing industry Industrial structure, increase manufacturing efforts according to work distribution and other fundamental measures to promote the growth of the welfare of manufacturing workers.