本文基于煤炭市场供需关系会对煤炭价格产生主要影响的假设,构建关于煤炭价格的状态空间方程,对煤炭价格均衡进行实证分析,并借助蛛网模型对近期煤炭价格下跌原因进行分析和解释。据此,为政府制定煤炭行业短期调控政策和长期产业规划提供科学依据。 Based on the assumption that coal supply and demand will have a major impact on coal prices, this paper constructs a state-space equation on coal prices, analyzes the coal price equilibrium and analyzes and explains the causes of coal price declines in the near future. Accordingly, for the government to develop short-term coal industry regulation and control policies and long-term industrial planning to provide a scientific basis.