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混凝土的徐变和收缩是长期荷载作用下混凝土结构裂缝宽度扩大的主要影响因素．因受环境条件影响，使其在水工结构中具有较大的不定性，而对水工混凝土结构构件可靠度的影响，目前尚无统一认识及合理的考虑方法．为了正确分析计算长期荷载作用下水工结构限裂可靠度，从多个方面探讨了混凝土收缩和徐变的变异对长期荷载统计不定性构件截面抗力不定性的影响程度，据此采用正常使用极限状态“抗力－ 荷载效应转换摸式”进行了可靠度分析．结果表明：长期荷载作用下水工结构限裂可靠度比一般的建筑结构高；水工混凝土结构构件裂缝计算公式的可靠度原则对不同的构件尚不统一，尤其是轴心受拉构件，公式中的常系数有待改进
The creep and shrinkage of concrete are the main influencing factors of the crack width expansion of concrete structures under long-term load. Due to the influence of environmental conditions, it has great uncertainty in the hydraulic structure. However, there is no unified understanding and reasonable consideration of the influence on the reliability of hydraulic concrete structural members. In order to correctly analyze and calculate the reliability of the hydraulic structure under long-term load, the influence of the variation of concrete shrinkage and creep on the uncertainty of cross-section resistance of long-term load statistic members is discussed from several aspects. Based on this, The state “resistance - load effect conversion mode” for the reliability analysis. The results show that the reliability of hydraulic structure cracking under long-term load is higher than that of ordinary structures. The reliability principle of hydraulic concrete structure components crack calculation formula is not uniform for different components, especially the axial tension members, In the constant coefficient needs to be improved