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[摘 要] 银行在受理公司客户贷款申请时，对公司客户的信贷风险分析是非常重要环节。本文基于整体信贷风险分析理念，重点对公司客户如何进行行业风险分析、业务风险分析、管理评估及财务风险分析方面做了介绍，使人们对信贷风险分析方法有了深入了解，对金融英语学习者和银行公司信贷从业者完善信贷分析方面提供了参考。
[关键词] 行业风险；业务风险；管理评估；财务风险
【中图分类号】F832.4；F224
Abstract： When the corporate client applies the loan， it is very important for the bank to conduct credit risk analysis on the corporate client. This paper introduced how to analyze corporate client’s industry risk， business risk， management evaluation and financial risk， based on a value-based credit analysis framework including qualitative and quantitative. This paper can not only make people understand the method of credit risk analysis but also provide very good reference to the bankers and English learners on fiance.
Key words： industry risk， business risk， management evaluation， financial risk
When the bank wants to lend their money to one corporate client， they must make detailed credit risk analysis on the customer’s business， cash flow， financial etc. A good method of credit risk analysis will help the bank to identify customer’s risk correctly and then they can on board the right customer. Today， we want to introduce one method of credit risk analysis， ie.， the value-based credit analysis framework. The Value Based Credit Analysis Framework provides a disciplined and progressive thought process to do a robust corporate credit analysis. It is therefore important to： understand the component parts， and be able to apply them in an integrated manner to analyze a corporate client.
There are below main contents on value-based credit analysis framework. We will introduce details in below parts：Business risk analysis， Management evaluation and Financial risk analysis
Business Risk Analysis
Business risk is the risk that a company may not be able to complete effectively and adequately its operating cycle. Business risk includes 4 types of risks： Supply risk， production risk， demand risk and collection risk.
For demand risk， the bank should analyze below points：How does the business growth compare with industry growth rate； nature of competition； buyer concentration； demand drivers for the goods-fashion， economic growth， lifestyle； distribution network availability； price power； cost advantages； regulatory issues； is buyer relationship important； substitution availability； economic downturn； seasonal demand.
For supply risk， the bank should analyze below points：Raw material sourcing； availability and concentration of suppliers； seasonality of raw material supply； cost advantages； price risk； currency risk； country risk； regulatory risk factors logistic. For production risk， the bank should analyze below points：Production capacity risk； operation efficiency； availability of skilled labor； cost advantages； stock-up requirements for sudden order； power， fuel and utilities； adverse labor relationship； process complexity of developing higher margin products； geographical concentration of production； environmental issues in production； logistics.
For collection risk， the bank should focus on the analysis of credit risk of buyers， country risk and currency risk.
When analyzing business risk， the bank should integrate company and industry analysis. By connecting the customer’s competencies with key industry risks and critical success factors， the bank can identify customer’s key competency， and then do a overall analysis on customer’s operating cycle to identify the major business risk and mitigation.
Management Evaluation
Every decision in a company is driven by management and this is why a robust and dynamic analysis of the quality of management is critically important. As the saying goes：
“Good management can survive a bad balance sheet but a good balance sheet won’t survive bad management”
The management Grid provides a structured framework to form an objective assessment of management decisions across four criteria， namely Risk Preference & Decision Making， Strategy & Task Objectives， Organization Structure & Design， and Process Information & Control.
Management’s risk preference often provide a framework for deriving the corporate strategy， designing the organization structure to support and execute that strategy， and building the management practices （process， information and controls） to enable a dynamic execution of management decisions. While it appears that the flow is uni-directional starting from Risk Preference & Decision Making. The practical reality is that these is a strong inter-connectivity between the four parts of the Grid.
Another useful tool that helps the bank to categorize management is Management Matrix.
The management Matrix is useful when applied over a longer period of management performance （3-7 years）. It provides the analyzer some criteria to categorize management along two axes， namely：
- Rate of Earnings Growth as measured by year-on-year earnings figures （on the vertical axis）， and
- Degree of Risk Preference （on the horizontal axis）
Preferable earnings that are closest to cash flow， eg.， EBITDA， EBIT etc. Typically， a company with an average rate of earnings growth and management with low risk preferences or appetite can be classified as Administrative. Where a company has a higher rate of earnings growth and a higher risk appetite， this would result in management being classified as Professional. However， if that company’s management risk preferences or appetite increases， the classification becomes Aggressive. Low or decreasing earnings growth coupled with high risk preferences or appetite and management is classified as Speculative.
If a company has negative earnings growth， the management classification is either Failing or Gambling.
Financial Risk Analysis
The financial risk we mentioned hereby includes 8 possible sources of risk： liquidity risk， financing risk， foreign exchange risk， interest rate risk， commodity risk， counterpart risk， equity risk and contingent risk.
The most important is liquidity risk and financing risk（debt service capacity）.
Liquidity risk means uncertainty around adequacy & sustainability of cash flows for all financial obligations. Three dimensions of liquidity are profitability （Profit & Loss）， capital structure/funding mismatch （Balance Sheet） and NCAO/CADA （Cash Flow）.
Financing risk means availability is strained and/or cost is excessive. The bank should focus on the analysis of refinancing risk， ie.， whether the company could successfully renew the loans from the existing lenders. Besides， the bank also needs to consider external factors， eg.， macro-economic， market. In fact， all the analysis of this part is concluded based on the company’s debt service capacity. The bank can use some financial ratios such as， gearing， Debt to EBITDA， leverage to identify if the company’s financing risk is low.
Reference
[1]Pin， D. H； Knowledge-intensive business services as co-producers of innovation[M]；International Journal of Innovation Management； 2005年
[2]Steven A.Ross；Corporate Finance[M]；China Machinery Press；2008年
[3]巴曙松.巴塞尔新资本协议研究[M].中国金融出版社，2003年
[4]魏国雄.信贷风险管理[M].中国金融出版社，2008年
[5]李昊.浅析我国商业银行利率风险的管制问题[A].吉林省行政管理学会“加强体制机制创新，建设服务型政府”研讨会论文集（《吉林政报》2008·理论专刊）[C]，2008年
[6]李红梅.中国商业银行整体风险管理研究[D].辽宁大学，2010年
[7]陈建辉.金融专业英语[M].武汉大学出版社，2010年
[8]徐田田.浅析中国商业银行信贷风险管理[J].金融经济，2011年16期
[9]沈素萍.金融英语教程（高等学校英语拓展系列教程）[M].外语教学与研究出版社，2013年
[关键词] 行业风险；业务风险；管理评估；财务风险
【中图分类号】F832.4；F224
Abstract： When the corporate client applies the loan， it is very important for the bank to conduct credit risk analysis on the corporate client. This paper introduced how to analyze corporate client’s industry risk， business risk， management evaluation and financial risk， based on a value-based credit analysis framework including qualitative and quantitative. This paper can not only make people understand the method of credit risk analysis but also provide very good reference to the bankers and English learners on fiance.
Key words： industry risk， business risk， management evaluation， financial risk
When the bank wants to lend their money to one corporate client， they must make detailed credit risk analysis on the customer’s business， cash flow， financial etc. A good method of credit risk analysis will help the bank to identify customer’s risk correctly and then they can on board the right customer. Today， we want to introduce one method of credit risk analysis， ie.， the value-based credit analysis framework. The Value Based Credit Analysis Framework provides a disciplined and progressive thought process to do a robust corporate credit analysis. It is therefore important to： understand the component parts， and be able to apply them in an integrated manner to analyze a corporate client.
There are below main contents on value-based credit analysis framework. We will introduce details in below parts：Business risk analysis， Management evaluation and Financial risk analysis
Business Risk Analysis
Business risk is the risk that a company may not be able to complete effectively and adequately its operating cycle. Business risk includes 4 types of risks： Supply risk， production risk， demand risk and collection risk.
For demand risk， the bank should analyze below points：How does the business growth compare with industry growth rate； nature of competition； buyer concentration； demand drivers for the goods-fashion， economic growth， lifestyle； distribution network availability； price power； cost advantages； regulatory issues； is buyer relationship important； substitution availability； economic downturn； seasonal demand.
For supply risk， the bank should analyze below points：Raw material sourcing； availability and concentration of suppliers； seasonality of raw material supply； cost advantages； price risk； currency risk； country risk； regulatory risk factors logistic. For production risk， the bank should analyze below points：Production capacity risk； operation efficiency； availability of skilled labor； cost advantages； stock-up requirements for sudden order； power， fuel and utilities； adverse labor relationship； process complexity of developing higher margin products； geographical concentration of production； environmental issues in production； logistics.
For collection risk， the bank should focus on the analysis of credit risk of buyers， country risk and currency risk.
When analyzing business risk， the bank should integrate company and industry analysis. By connecting the customer’s competencies with key industry risks and critical success factors， the bank can identify customer’s key competency， and then do a overall analysis on customer’s operating cycle to identify the major business risk and mitigation.
Management Evaluation
Every decision in a company is driven by management and this is why a robust and dynamic analysis of the quality of management is critically important. As the saying goes：
“Good management can survive a bad balance sheet but a good balance sheet won’t survive bad management”
The management Grid provides a structured framework to form an objective assessment of management decisions across four criteria， namely Risk Preference & Decision Making， Strategy & Task Objectives， Organization Structure & Design， and Process Information & Control.
Management’s risk preference often provide a framework for deriving the corporate strategy， designing the organization structure to support and execute that strategy， and building the management practices （process， information and controls） to enable a dynamic execution of management decisions. While it appears that the flow is uni-directional starting from Risk Preference & Decision Making. The practical reality is that these is a strong inter-connectivity between the four parts of the Grid.
Another useful tool that helps the bank to categorize management is Management Matrix.
The management Matrix is useful when applied over a longer period of management performance （3-7 years）. It provides the analyzer some criteria to categorize management along two axes， namely：
- Rate of Earnings Growth as measured by year-on-year earnings figures （on the vertical axis）， and
- Degree of Risk Preference （on the horizontal axis）
Preferable earnings that are closest to cash flow， eg.， EBITDA， EBIT etc. Typically， a company with an average rate of earnings growth and management with low risk preferences or appetite can be classified as Administrative. Where a company has a higher rate of earnings growth and a higher risk appetite， this would result in management being classified as Professional. However， if that company’s management risk preferences or appetite increases， the classification becomes Aggressive. Low or decreasing earnings growth coupled with high risk preferences or appetite and management is classified as Speculative.
If a company has negative earnings growth， the management classification is either Failing or Gambling.
Financial Risk Analysis
The financial risk we mentioned hereby includes 8 possible sources of risk： liquidity risk， financing risk， foreign exchange risk， interest rate risk， commodity risk， counterpart risk， equity risk and contingent risk.
The most important is liquidity risk and financing risk（debt service capacity）.
Liquidity risk means uncertainty around adequacy & sustainability of cash flows for all financial obligations. Three dimensions of liquidity are profitability （Profit & Loss）， capital structure/funding mismatch （Balance Sheet） and NCAO/CADA （Cash Flow）.
Financing risk means availability is strained and/or cost is excessive. The bank should focus on the analysis of refinancing risk， ie.， whether the company could successfully renew the loans from the existing lenders. Besides， the bank also needs to consider external factors， eg.， macro-economic， market. In fact， all the analysis of this part is concluded based on the company’s debt service capacity. The bank can use some financial ratios such as， gearing， Debt to EBITDA， leverage to identify if the company’s financing risk is low.
Reference
[1]Pin， D. H； Knowledge-intensive business services as co-producers of innovation[M]；International Journal of Innovation Management； 2005年
[2]Steven A.Ross；Corporate Finance[M]；China Machinery Press；2008年
[3]巴曙松.巴塞尔新资本协议研究[M].中国金融出版社，2003年
[4]魏国雄.信贷风险管理[M].中国金融出版社，2008年
[5]李昊.浅析我国商业银行利率风险的管制问题[A].吉林省行政管理学会“加强体制机制创新，建设服务型政府”研讨会论文集（《吉林政报》2008·理论专刊）[C]，2008年
[6]李红梅.中国商业银行整体风险管理研究[D].辽宁大学，2010年
[7]陈建辉.金融专业英语[M].武汉大学出版社，2010年
[8]徐田田.浅析中国商业银行信贷风险管理[J].金融经济，2011年16期
[9]沈素萍.金融英语教程（高等学校英语拓展系列教程）[M].外语教学与研究出版社，2013年