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在运营成本的随机变化服从几何布朗运动以及网络渠道的开通会产生不可逆投资沉没成本的条件下,采用实物期权方法分别建立渠道集成策略和渠道更新策略下公司的价值函数,分析运营成本的不确定性对网络渠道开通时机选择的影响.研究表明:公司运营集成的双渠道情形下传统渠道和网络渠道的最优定价策略与运营单一传统渠道、单一网络渠道相同;延迟开通网络渠道的等待价值随运营成本漂移率以及瞬时波动率的增大而增大,但是却随着无风险利率的增大而减小;当运营成本瞬时波动率的平方小于漂移率的两倍时,开通网络渠道的期望等待时间将会受到无风险利率、运营成本漂移率以及瞬时波动率的影响,其他情形下期望等待时间则不受影响.研究结论可为不确定环境下公司网络渠道开通时机选择提供理论支持与实践指导.
Under the condition that the stochastic change of operation cost obeys the geometric Brownian motion and the opening of network channel will produce the irreversible investment sunk cost, the real option method is used to establish the value function of the company under channel integration strategy and channel update strategy respectively to analyze the uncertainty of operation cost The research shows that the optimal pricing strategy of traditional channels and network channels is the same as that of single traditional channel and single network channel under the double channel of integrated operation and the waiting value of delayed open channel Operating cost drift rate and instantaneous volatility but increases as risk-free rate increases. When the square of instantaneous volatility of operating costs is less than twice the drift rate, the expectation of opening network channel Waiting time will be affected by the risk-free interest rate, the operating cost drift rate and the instantaneous volatility, while in other cases, the expected waiting time will not be affected.The research conclusion can provide theoretical support and practice for the opportunity selection of the opening of corporate network channels in an uncertain environment guide.