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金融海啸后,美国率先复苏,虽然增长动力是战后扩张期中最弱的一轮,但一直被认为是发达国家中“最干净的一件脏衣服”。即使美联储一直举棋不定,市场对下次加息何时出现的揣测亦从未间断,但只要细心聆听就不难发现,美国衰退的警号早已响起。目前弱势基本蔓延至制造业、企业投资、劳工市场、生产力等经济层面,具体反映在以下指标:(1)整体经济活动增长显著放缓;(2)工业生产连跌13个月;(3)核心耐用品订单连跌20个月;(4)生产力连续三个季度下跌;(5)总工时增速跌至六年低位;(6)劳工市场表现明显恶化。
After the financial tsunami, the United States took the lead in recovery. Although the growth momentum was the weakest in the postwar expansion period, it has always been regarded as “the cleanest dirty clothes” in the developed countries. Even if the Federal Reserve has been indecisive, the market speculation about when the next rate hike will never cease, but as long as you listen attentively, it is not hard to see that the siren of the U.S. recession has already sounded. The current weakness has basically spread to the economic level of manufacturing, corporate investment, labor market and productivity, which are reflected in the following indicators: (1) a marked slowdown in overall economic growth; (2) a drop in industrial production by 13 months; (3) Core durable goods orders fell 20 months; (4) Productivity plunged for three consecutive quarters; (5) Gross hourly growth fell to a six-year low; (6) Labor market performance deteriorated significantly.