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经济发展即产业结构的成功转变,经济发展既有总量的增长又有结构的转变,无结构转变的增长不是发展。高水平人力资本是推动产业结构高级化的重要力量,是家庭人口生产偏好的结果。本文尝试利用中国1952—2009年的时间序列以及各省的截面数据对中国人口生产偏好与产业结构升级之间的关系进行实证研究,并计算各省两者之间的适配度。计量分析结果证实了产业结构升级在短期能有效地推动人口生产偏好实现由量到质的逆转,人口生产偏好在长期对产业结构升级具有正向拉动作用。此外,人口生产偏好与产业结构的适配度对产业结构升级具有显著正向影响。
Economic development, that is, the successful transformation of the industrial structure, has both an overall increase in economic growth and a structural change, and no growth without structural change is not development. High-level human capital is an important force that promotes the industrialization of the industrial structure and is the result of the preference of the family population. This paper attempts to use China’s time series of 1952-2009 and the cross-sectional data of provinces to study the relationship between China’s population production preference and the upgrading of industrial structure, and calculate the adaptability between the two provinces. The results of measurement analysis confirm that the upgrading of industrial structure can effectively push population production preferences to reverse from quantity to quality in the short run, and population preference has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in the long run. In addition, the adaptability between population preference and industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.