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白杨河位于新疆阜康市,白杨河水文站是其水量控制站。本文选用白杨河水文站1964~2010年年径流量系列,用多步状态转移概率矩阵试报了该站2011~2014年年径流量丰枯趋势;选用1964~2014年系列,用同样方法预报了2015、2016年年径流量丰枯趋势。试报结果令人满意,预报结果可供参考。
Poplar River is located in Fukang, Xinjiang, Baiyanghe hydrological station is its water control station. In this paper, the annual runoff series of Baiyanghe Hydrological Station from 1964 to 2010 were selected, and the trend of annual runoff abundance and precipitation in 2011 to 2014 was tested with multi-step state transition probability matrix. The series from 1964 to 2014 were selected and predicted by the same method 2015, 2016 annual runoff abundance trend. Test results are satisfactory, the forecast results for reference.