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通过对甘肃省黑河流域中游下段的高台县60个村578户农业户进行参与式调查,采用决策树分类和空间分析方法,探索干旱区农户作物选择的影响机制,模拟不同水资源供应情景下的作物空间格局变化。结果表明:1影响作物选择的首要因素是作物所需的灌溉次数,其次是预期收入、预期成本以及灌区;2作物种植在空间上存在差异,水资源相对充足的灌区种植结构单一,以收益较高的制种玉米为主,山区及灌溉用水不足的灌区,以低耗水作物和套种模式为主;沿黑河干流向下游套种比例逐渐增多,高耗水作物逐渐减小;3情景模拟结果显示,若水资源供给减少,高耗水作物种植比例将会下降,中、低耗水的作物种植比例将会增加;大田种植减少,套种模式增加。
Through the survey of 578 households in 60 villages of Gaotai County in the lower reaches of Heihe River valley in the middle reaches of Gansu Province, the author used decision tree classification and spatial analysis methods to explore the mechanism of farmers’ crop selection in arid areas and simulated the impacts of different water resources supply scenarios Crop space pattern changes. The results showed that: (1) The primary factors affecting the crop selection are the irrigation times needed for the crop, followed by the expected income, the expected cost and the irrigated area. (2) There are spatial differences in the crop planting, single irrigated area with relatively sufficient water resources, High maize planting, mountainous areas and irrigated irrigated areas are dominated by low-water-crop and intercropping patterns; the proportion of interplanting along the mainstream of the Heihe River is gradually increasing and the high-water-consuming crops are gradually decreasing; 3 Simulation results of the scenarios If the supply of water resources is reduced, the proportion of high-water-crop crops will decrease, the proportion of middle-low water-consuming crops will increase, field planting will decrease, and inter-cropping patterns will increase.