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本文分析了2000年以来大宗商品价格运行规律,发现从长期看随着世界经济格局变化,需求带动下的价格上涨超出人们想象。从短期看,供需时间错配导致了价格运行的大涨大跌现象。针对我国黑色品种价格大幅波动实证分析,短期供需时间错配下黑色系品种价格变化滞后于市场供求的重大变化,导致价格出现大涨大跌现象。这也指出了,缺乏理性分析的“过度投机炒作论”和“资产荒论”都是脱离实际的。鉴于期货市场作为实体经济的晴雨表,相关部门应重视价格运行规律发出的信号,制定辅助政策。
This article analyzes the law of commodity price operation since 2000 and finds that in the long run, with the change of the world economic pattern, the demand-driven price rise exceeds the people’s imagination. In the short run, the timing of supply and demand mismatch led to the ups and downs of price movements. In view of the substantial fluctuation of black breed prices in China, the price changes of black breed lags behind the significant changes of market supply and demand under the mismatch of short-term supply and demand. This also points out that the lack of rational analysis “excessive speculation hype ” and “asset shortage” are out of touch with reality. In view of the futures market as a barometer of the real economy, relevant departments should attach importance to the signal sent by the law of price operation and formulate supporting policies.