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本文通过求解阶梯定价下福利损失与再分配效应的充分统计量,构建评估与优化阶梯定价的半结构式充分统计量模型。利用从国家电网随机抽取的2003—2011年杭州市5000户居民的月度电量消费数据,评估样本期内实施与调整阶梯定价的政策效果;在此基础上对最优阶梯定价机制进行优化设计,进一步评价了杭州市2012年最新阶梯定价调整政策。研究发现:(1)2004年与2006年杭州市实施与调整阶梯定价的福利损失分配效应转化率逐步上升,阶梯定价再分配的边际福利损失与初次分配的税收边际福利损失相当;(2)分时阶梯定价分配效应转化率比纯阶梯定价低,嵌入分时定价的阶梯定价不能有效地实现阶梯定价目标;(3)与最优阶梯定价机制相比,2012年的最新阶梯定价调整方向正确,但第一阶梯长度扩展过多、第二阶梯扩展不足,而阶梯加价太小;(4)较之结构与缩减式模型,充分统计量方法极大节约数据信息量并能进行福利分析。本文的研究为评估与优化我国各类政府公用事业改革开拓了一条新思路。
In this paper, by solving sufficient statistic of welfare loss and redistribution effect under the step pricing, a semi-structure sufficient statistic model for evaluating and optimizing the pricing of the ladder is constructed. Using the monthly electricity consumption data of 5000 households in Hangzhou City from 2003 to 2011 collected randomly from the national grid, the policy effect of implementing and adjusting the pricing of ladder pricing during the sample period was evaluated. On the basis of this, the optimal pricing mechanism of the ladder pricing was optimized Evaluation of Hangzhou City in 2012 the latest ladder pricing adjustment policy. The research finds that: (1) The conversion rate of welfare loss distribution effect of implementing and adjusting the ladder pricing in Hangzhou in 2004 and 2006 is gradually increasing, and the marginal benefit loss of the ladder pricing redistribution is equivalent to the loss of the initial distribution of tax marginal benefits; (2) (3) Compared with the optimal step pricing mechanism, the latest step pricing adjustment in 2012 is in the right direction, and the price of the step-by-step pricing reform is lower than the pure step pricing. However, the length of the first step is too much, the second step is not enough, but the step markup is too small. (4) Compared with the structure and the reduced model, the sufficient statistic method can greatly save the amount of data and benefit analysis. The research in this paper opens up a new idea for assessing and optimizing the reform of all kinds of government public utilities in our country.