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目的探究江苏省昆山市1981-2015年去结直肠癌可增加期望寿命和结直肠癌所致的潜在减寿年时间趋势。方法1981-2015年结直肠癌死亡病例来源于死因监测,以计算去结直肠癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年。用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年。使用年度变化百分比(Annual Percentage Change,APC)评价去结直肠癌可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间变化趋势。结果 1981-2015年昆山市户籍居民因结直肠癌死亡2 994例,其中男性和女性分别为1 567例和1 427例。因结直肠癌所致标化潜在减寿年在总人群(APC=-4.2%,95%CI:-4.7%~-3.7%),男性(APC=-3.5%,95%CI:-4.2%~-2.7%)及女性(APC=-5.4%,95%CI:-6.5%~-4.3%)人群中明显下降。去结直肠癌死因可增加期望寿命在总人群(APC=-0.1%,95%CI:-0.6%~0.4%);男性人群(APC=0.3%,95%CI:-0.3%~0.9%)和女性人群(APC=-0.7%,95%CI:-1.4%~0.0%)均无明显趋势变化。结论因结直肠癌所致过早死亡逐年下降,然而去结直肠癌死因可增加期望寿命无明显变化,提示结直肠癌对全人群健康影响并没有减轻。
Objective To explore the trend of potential life expectancy reduction of colorectal cancer patients in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province from 1981 to 2015, which may increase the life expectancy and colorectal cancer. Methods The deaths of colorectal cancer from 1981 to 2015 were derived from the cause of death monitoring to calculate the expected life expectancy and potential life-years of death from colorectal cancer. Calculate the age-specific potential life-years for each sex by using the age structure of the fifth census of China in 2000. Evaluating colorectal cancer using the Annual Percentage Change (APC) may increase the trend in years between expected life expectancy and potential life-years lost. Results Between 1981 and 2015, 2,994 deaths of registered permanent residents in Kunshan were found due to colorectal cancer, of which 1 567 were male and 1 427 were women. Potential years of longevity due to colorectal cancer were normalized in the general population (APC = -4.2%, 95% CI: -4.7% -3.7%), men (APC -3.5%, 95% CI -4.2% ~ 2.7%) and women (APC -5.4%, 95% CI: -6.5% -4.3%). The cause of death from colorectal cancer increased the life expectancy in the general population (APC = -0.1%, 95% CI: -0.6% -0.4%); the male population (APC = 0.3%, 95% CI: -0.3% -0.9% And female population (APC = -0.7%, 95% CI: -1.4% -0.0%) showed no significant trend change. Conclusions The premature death due to colorectal cancer is declining year by year. However, the cause of death from colorectal cancer may increase the life expectancy without any significant change, suggesting that the effect of colorectal cancer on the health of the whole population has not diminished.