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根据新疆奎屯气象站1961—2008年的气候资料,采用线性回归和Mann-Kendall突变检测等方法,对近48 a的年平均气温、无霜期、≥0℃活动积温、≥10℃活动积温、日照时数、降水量、潜在蒸散量和蒸降差等农业气候要素的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究,结果表明:(1)近48 a奎屯垦区年平均气温呈上升趋势;≥0℃活动积温与≥10℃活动积温增加;年日照时数减少;年降水量略增;年潜在蒸散量和年蒸降差显著减少。(2)奎屯垦区年平均气温于1972年以来发生了极显著的突变性升高,无霜期于1969年发生了较显著的突变性延长;≥0℃活动积温和≥10℃活动积温于1975年分别发生了显著的突变性增多;年日照时数于1983年发生了极显著的突变性减少;年潜在蒸散量和蒸降差分别于1984年和1983年发生了极显著的突变性减小,但年降水量未发生突变。
According to the climate data of Kuitun weather station in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2008, linear regression and Mann-Kendall mutation detection method were used to study the annual average temperature, frost-free period, active accumulated temperature ≥0 ℃, active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃, The results showed that: (1) The average annual temperature of Kuitun reclamation area in the past 48 months showed an upward trend; the activity accumulated temperature of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ activity accumulated temperature increased; annual sunshine hours decreased; annual precipitation slightly increased; the annual potential evapotranspiration and annual steam drop decreased significantly. (2) The annual mean temperature in Kuitun reclamation area had a remarkable mutation increase since 1972, and the frost-free period had a more dramatic mutation extension in 1969. The active accumulated temperature≥0 ℃ and the active accumulated temperature≥10 ℃ in 1975 Significant mutagenicity occurred. The annual sunshine duration decreased dramatically in 1983. The annual evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration decreased dramatically in 1984 and 1983, respectively. However, Annual precipitation did not change.