论文部分内容阅读
中国经济维持L型模式难度很大,供给侧改革承担的力度不小2016年1-2月工业增加值同比实际增长5.4%,这个数字表明增速在回落,但从发电煤耗情况看,3月工业环比增长可能比较强。一季度工业增加值同比增长率估计6%左右,与去年四季度持平或略高。因为从需求端看,大致上是外需差,消费弱,投资强,特别是房地产投资季调后环比高增长。由于前两个月的销售和投资绝对数小,且投资对销售的反应滞后,房地产销售投资转强对于工业生产的效果在1-2月还不明显。3月工业环比较
China’s economy is very difficult to maintain its L-shaped model and its supply-side reform is not too weak. In January-February 2016, the industrial added value actually increased by 5.4% from a year earlier. This figure shows that the growth rate is declining. However, from the perspective of coal consumption in power generation, March Industrial chain growth may be stronger. In the first quarter, the year-on-year rate of increase in industrial added value is estimated at around 6%, unchanged from the fourth quarter of last year or slightly higher. Because from the demand side, is generally poor external demand, consumption is weak, strong investment, especially after the quarterly real estate investment chain growth. Due to the relatively small sales and investment in the first two months and the lagged investment response to sales, the effect of a stronger real estate sales investment on industrial production is not apparent in January-February. March industrial ring comparison