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2012年上半年天然橡胶市场走势呈明显冲高回落格局。第1季度前半段的市场反弹主要受益于天气和泰国收储对供应面形成的提振以及国内货币政策放松的预期;第1季度后半段,全球经济忧虑情绪再度加重,导致天然橡胶市场演绎了单边震荡下探的走势,6月沪胶指数创出2012年新低,天然橡胶市场整体走势仍处于大的下行通道中。下半年天然橡胶市场整体走势或呈前低后高。预计第3季度天然橡胶市场压力犹存,主要压制因素是欧债危机和全球经济疲软对天然橡胶消费改善形成拖累及天然橡胶供应量增大,但是全球再度改善流动性,我国货币政策适度宽松,同时有产业刺激政策的预期,预计市场压力较上半年有所缓和,继续下行空间有限,沪胶指数可能在20000～26000元的大区间内震荡;如果国内经济能逐步探底回升,第4季度沪胶指数逐步走高的概率将增大,并有再度挑战30000元整数关的可能。
Natural rubber market in the first half of 2012 showed a marked trend of highs and a decline. The first half of the first half of the market rebound mainly benefited from the weather and the Thai purchasing and storage boost on the supply side as well as the expected relaxation of domestic monetary policy; Q1 of the second half, the global economic worries once again aggravate, leading to the interpretation of the natural rubber market The trend of unilateral shock dropping, June Hujiao Index hit a new low in 2012, the overall trend of the natural rubber market is still in the large downward channel. The second half of the overall trend of the natural rubber market was low before high. The pressure on the natural rubber market is still expected to remain in Q3. The main pressing factors are the debt crisis in Europe and the global economic slowdown, which dragged down the improvement of natural rubber consumption and increased the supply of natural rubber. However, with the global liquidity once more improved, China’s monetary policy is moderately relaxed, At the same time, there is expectation of industry stimulus policies. Market pressure is expected to ease from the first half of the year. Continued downward downtrend may cause Hujiao index to fluctuate within a large range of 20,000 to 26,000 yuan. If the domestic economy gradually bottoms out, Q4 Hujiao index gradually increase the probability will increase, and once again challenge the possibility of 30,000 yuan integer off.