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在城乡二元分割环境下,本文分析了农业与非农两部门经济互动所产生的结构效应对货币长期非中性的影响。文中首先利用两部门一般均衡模型对货币与产出的关系进行了理论考察,并基于季度结构突变的协整分析方法剖析了货币与产出的长期关系,然后,利用递归的结构联立方程模型对理论进行了验证。研究认为:中国的货币存在着长期非中性特征,但这种特征主要不是来自于传统的名义调整不完全,而是源自城乡互动的结构性效应。
In the urban-rural dualistic environment, this paper analyzes the effect of the structural effect of the economic interaction between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors on the long-term non-neutrality of the currency. In this paper, the author first makes a theoretical study of the relationship between money and output using the two-part general equilibrium model and analyzes the long-term relationship between money and output based on the quarterly structural cointegration analysis. Then, using the recursive structural simultaneous equations The theory has been verified. The study suggests that there is a long-term non-neutral characteristic in China’s currency, but this characteristic does not come mainly from the incomplete nominal adjustment but from the structural effect of urban-rural interaction.