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开展海洋水温预报,对于加强海防建设、开发利用海洋资源以及发展渔业生产都具有十分重要的意义。我国在1960年业已开始了这项研究工作。但由于历史的原因,致使这项工作的研究及开展预报业务方面现仍处于初始阶段。尽管如此,目前我国在统计预报原理的研究方面与国外差距并不大。这里我们对1976年由山东海洋学院、黄海水产研究所、东海水产研究所以及山东省海洋水产研究所四单位协作组开展的渤、黄、东海近海区大面水温预报所取得的成果,特别是对我们分工的烟威及渤海中南部海区春、秋季水温预报工作进行总结分析,为今后进一步改进预报方法、提高预报精度提供依据。
Carrying out forecast of ocean water temperature is of great significance for strengthening coastal construction, developing and utilizing marine resources, and developing fishery production. My country started the research in 1960. However, due to historical reasons, the research on this work and the forecasting business are still at an initial stage. In spite of this, at present, the gap between China and foreign countries in the study of statistical forecasting principle is not large. Here, we have made some achievements in predicting the large-scale water temperature in the offshore areas of the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea carried out in 1976 by the Shandong Ocean University, the Yellow Sea Fisheries Research Institute, the East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute and the Shandong Provincial Institute of Marine Fisheries. In particular, This paper summarizes the forecast of the water temperature in spring and autumn of the tobacco industry in our division of labor and in spring and autumn in the central and southern Bohai Sea, and provides the basis for further improvement of forecasting methods and forecasting accuracy in the future.