【背景分析】2015年,四川经济相继出现了一些新的情况。增长速度回落幅度收窄,动力不足矛盾更为明显;消费增长相对平稳,投资和出口继续回落;部分传统产业回暖,新兴产业增速减缓;重点城市增速放慢,新兴城市增速居前。展望今后几年,GDP增速有望在7-8%之间徘徊。消费增长可保持在8-9%的水平,每年可贡献4个百分点以上。投资可能下降到10%左右,每年贡献约3个百分点。包括省际贸易在内的“贸易逆差”将转为“贸易顺差”。 Background Analysis In 2015, some new situations have emerged in Sichuan’s economy. The contradiction between the growth rate of decline and the lack of motivation was more obvious; the growth of consumption was relatively stable; the investment and exports continued to fall; the recovery of some traditional industries and the slowdown of emerging industries; the slowdown of key cities and the growth of emerging cities. Looking forward to the next few years, GDP growth is expected to hover between 7-8%. Consumption growth can be maintained at the level of 8-9%, contributing more than 4% per annum. Investment may drop to around 10%, contributing about 3 percentage points each year. “Trade deficits”, including inter-provincial trade, will be translated into “trade surplus.”