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这次金融危机从2007年下半年开始至今已一年多,大量分析研究已经较为全面地揭示了危机的成因、性质及其通过金融衍生品方式所形成的危机转移和扩散方式。然而,对这次危机的最终涉及面到底会有多广,持续时间会有多长,对实体经济的伤害程度会有多深,目前在经济学界还没有取得共识。因此,作者通过经济长周期的角度,考察了世界经济今后的走势,在此基础上,研究中国经济如何应对当前金融危机的问题。
The financial crisis has been more than a year since the second half of 2007, and a large number of analytical studies have revealed the causes and the nature of the crisis and the crisis transfer and diffusion through the financial derivatives. However, the ultimate scope of the crisis will be wide, how long will be sustained, how much harm the real economy will be, at present there is no consensus in the field of economics. Therefore, the author examines the future trend of world economy through the perspective of economic cycle, and on this basis, studies how China’s economy copes with the current financial crisis.