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基于秃尾河高家川站1956—2012年实测日径流数据,采用递归数字滤波法进行基流分割,并对高家川基流的趋势性、持续性、多时间尺度和突变特征进行分析。最后,采用累积斜率法计算降水和人类活动对基流的贡献比例。研究表明:1956—2012年秃尾河基流不仅具持续显著减少特征,还有22 a和8 a的多尺度周期变化特征和突变特征,并以1979和1996年为突变点。与基准期相比,1980—1996年降水和人类活动对基流的贡献率分别为54.16%和45.84%;1997—2012年降水和人类活动所占的比例分别为30.11%和69.89%;人为驱动力占总驱动力的比例显著上升,可以认为在全球气候变化的背景下,人类活动日益成为秃尾河基流演变的主要驱动因子。
Based on the measured daily runoff data from 1956 to 2012 in Tujiahe high ridge station, the recursive digital filter method was used to carry on the base flow segmentation, and the trend, persistence, multi-time scale and mutation characteristics of Gaojiahe base flow were analyzed. Finally, the cumulative slope method is used to calculate the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the base flow. The results show that the base flow of Tuwei River between 1956 and 2012 not only shows the continuous and significant decrease characteristics, but also has the multi-scale periodic variation characteristics and mutation characteristics of 22 a and 8 a, with 1979 and 1996 as the mutation points. Compared with the baseline period, precipitation and human activities contributed 54.16% and 45.84% of the base flow respectively during 1980-1996. The precipitation and human activities accounted for 30.11% and 69.89% of the total respectively in 1997-2012; The proportion of total force to total driving force increased significantly. It can be concluded that in the context of global climate change, human activities are increasingly becoming the main driving force behind the evolution of the base flow of Tuwei River.