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城镇化水平提高会促进产业结构优化升级吗?文章运用1998-2014年30省份面板数据,实证分析了城镇化与产业结构升级之间的关系。研究发现:第一,静态面板FE和RE模型、动态面板DIF-GMM和SYS-GMM模型估计结果均显示人口城镇化与产业结构升级呈现显著正相关而土地城镇化与产业结构升级呈现显著负相关;第二,产业结构升级均存在显著的空间自相关性,其在空间分布上并非随机分布,而是具有空间上的依赖性;第三,人口城镇化不仅对本地区产业结构升级具有明显促进效应,而且对周边地区产业结构升级具有显著的正向促进与溢出效应,且溢出间接效应大于直接促进效应;第四,土地城镇化对本地区产业结构升级具有显著抑制效应,而对周边地区产业结构升级促进作用不显著,未来实现产城融合,推动产业结构升级,需要走人口城镇化而非土地城镇化道路;第五,市场化水平、外商直接投资、基础设施等对产业结构升级也具有不同影响。基于上述研究结论,本文提出了相关对策建议。
Will Urbanization Enhance the Optimization and Upgrading of Industrial Structure? Using the panel data of 30 provinces from 1998 to 2014, the paper empirically analyzes the relationship between urbanization and upgrading of industrial structure. The findings are as follows: First, the estimation results of FE and RE models for static panel, DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM for dynamic panel all show that population urbanization has a significant positive correlation with the upgrading of industrial structure while land urbanization shows a significant negative correlation with industrial structure upgrading ; Second, there are significant spatial autocorrelations in the upgrading of industrial structure, which are not randomly distributed in spatial distribution but have spatial dependence. Third, population urbanization not only has a significant promotion effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in the region , But also has significant positive promotion and spillover effect on the industrial structure upgrading in the surrounding areas, and the spillover indirect effect is greater than the direct promotion effect. Fourthly, urbanization of land has a significant inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in the region, while upgrading the industrial structure in the surrounding areas Fifth, the level of marketization, foreign direct investment, infrastructure and other factors have different effects on the upgrading of the industrial structure. . Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.