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关于工资上涨的经济影响,相对于区域层面对低劳动成本优势的持续关注,面向企业的经验研究至今不多。本文从价格直接效应、雇佣规模效应、结构替代效应三方面分解工资水平影响企业经营成本的传导路径,运用浙江省第三次经济普查形成的制造业企业数据模拟各路径上的实际影响。研究认为:工资作为劳动要素的价格,直接成本效应是普遍而显著的,但当前工资水平尚未对企业雇佣规模构成广泛影响;人力资本水平显著影响着企业是否能以资本和技术等替代劳动,形成结构替代效应化解直接成本压力。面向未来工资继续上涨的必然趋势,政府应着力加强人力资本投资积累以改善劳动供给,加强劳动力市场监管以提升劳动要素效率。
With regard to the economic impact of rising wages, there are not many empirical studies of enterprises with respect to the continuous attention paid to the advantages of low labor costs at the regional level. In this paper, the direct impact of the employment, the employment scale effect and the structural substitution effect are used to decompose the conduction path of the wage level affecting the operation cost of the enterprise and the actual influence of the manufacturing enterprises data simulated by the third economic census in Zhejiang Province on each path. The study suggests that the direct cost effect of wage as a factor of labor is common and significant, but the current wage level has not yet had a broad impact on the scale of employment. The level of human capital has a significant impact on whether enterprises can substitute labor with capital and technology to form Structural Replacement Effect Solves Direct Cost Pressure. In view of the inevitable trend of rising wage in the future, the government should strive to strengthen the accumulation of human capital investment to improve labor supply and strengthen labor market supervision so as to enhance the efficiency of labor factors.