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为综合考虑风险中的不确定性对评价结果的影响,针对目前铁路信号系统风险评价中无法充分利用专家定性评价信息的问题,提出一种基于模糊证据理论的铁路信号系统风险评价方法。首先在对系统进行风险识别的基础上,采用模糊集理论对风险因素进行统一的模糊描述;然后将模糊集中的描述映射在证据理论的识别框架下,通过证据理论进行信息融合;再结合风险因素权重进行综合评价,确定铁路信号系统的风险等级。以无线闭塞中心临时限速处理功能为例进行风险评价,分析确定该功能的风险等级,评估结果与实际情况相符,验证了该方法的有效性、合理性和可行性。
In order to comprehensively consider the impact of uncertainty in risk on evaluation results, aiming at the problem that railway expert system can not make full use of qualitative evaluation information in current risk assessment of railway signaling system, a risk assessment method of railway signaling system based on fuzzy evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, based on the risk identification of the system, the fuzzy set theory is used to describe the risk factors uniformly. Then, the description of the fuzzy sets is mapped under the identification framework of evidence theory and the information is fused through the evidence theory. Combined with the risk factors Weights to conduct a comprehensive evaluation to determine the risk level of the railway signaling system. Taking the temporary speed-limiting processing function of the wireless blocking center as an example, the risk assessment is carried out. The risk grade of the function is analyzed and confirmed. The evaluation results are in accordance with the actual situation. The validity, rationality and feasibility of the method are verified.