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用趋势面分析法证明鼻咽癌的高发中心为湘西自治州的古丈、保靖和吉首三县交界区。湖南省103个县、市的鼻咽癌和胃癌的年龄调整死亡率间有正相关,因此这二种癌可能有某些共同的病因发病因素。在12种数学函数中,Weibull 分布、对数正态分布和幂方程对鼻咽癌的年龄组死亡率拟合最好。文中提出一个鼻咽癌变的三击/多步假说,假定第一击为胚性击中,通过多基因遗传;第二击由化学因素(如亚硝胺类)引起;继之第三击——EB 病毒,或二击为病毒而三击为化学因素。假说还认为癌变过程至少在二步以上。
The trend analysis method was used to prove that the high-incidence center of nasopharyngeal carcinoma is the border area of Guzhang, Baojing and Jishou counties in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture. There is a positive correlation between age-adjusted mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma and gastric cancer in 103 counties and cities in Hunan Province. Therefore, these two types of cancer may have some common etiological factors. Among the 12 mathematical functions, the Weibull distribution, the lognormal distribution, and the power equation best fit the age group mortality of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This article proposes a three-hit/multi-step hypothesis of nasopharyngeal carcinogenesis, assuming that the first hit is an embryonic hit, which is inherited by multiple genes; the second hit is caused by chemical factors (such as nitrosamines); and the third hits— - The EB virus, or two strikes for the virus and three hits for the chemical factor. The hypothesis also believes that the cancer process is at least two or more steps.