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不确定性是新产品开发(NPD)中模糊前端(FFE)阶段最重要、最突出的特征,降低不确定性对NPD成功有重要作用。本文在论述了FFE及其不确定性内涵的基础上,重点对三个经典FFE不确定性模型进行了系统分析,归纳总结经典模型之间内在的逻辑关系。在此基础上探索并提出了基于开放式创新理论的FFE不确定性知识共享模型,对该模型的突出特点、关联因素及其相互关系进行了分析,并进一步结合案例分析对新模型的有效性进行了初步评价,为企业有效应用新模型来降低FFE不确定性、提高NPD绩效提供了新思路。
Uncertainty is the most important and prominent feature of the Fuzzy Front End (FFE) phase of New Product Development (NPD). Reducing uncertainty plays an important role in NPD success. Based on the discussion of the connotation of FFE and its uncertainty, this paper focuses on the systematic analysis of three classic FFE uncertainty models and summarizes the inherent logical relations among the classical models. Based on this, the knowledge sharing model of FFE uncertainty based on open innovation theory is explored and put forward. The outstanding features of the model, the associated factors and their interrelationships are analyzed, and the validity of the new model is further analyzed with case analysis Conducted a preliminary evaluation, which provided a new idea for enterprises to effectively apply the new model to reduce the FFE uncertainty and improve NPD performance.