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国内学者借鉴“增长阻尼”的研究方法,认为中国经济增长速度由于水土资源的限制每年下降1.45%,但由于在模型和数据选取存在一定的不足,并忽略了投入要素之间的替代关系,使得所计算出的阻尼系数并不符合实际情况。因此,本文针对当前资源阻尼效应研究所存在的不足,对北京市水土资源阻尼系数进行了计算和分析,结果表明水土资源阻尼系数都围绕着经济增长上下波动,因产业结构升级和资源集约利用,北京市水资源阻尼效应从2002年开始逐渐减弱;土地资源阻尼效应在1998年-2008年期间有所缓解,但2008年以后又开始围绕经济增长上下波动,深入研究后得出由于技术进步发挥了要素替代作用,短期内缓解了资源约束;但要最终解决资源约束,必须依靠要素替代和产业结构调整共同作用。此外,对于资源短缺地区,只有通过市场机制利用外部资源,才是解决资源约束的有效途径。
Based on the research method of “growth damping”, domestic scholars think that the rate of economic growth in China decreases by 1.45% annually due to the restriction of water and soil resources. However, due to some deficiencies in the selection of models and data and neglect of the substitution between input elements , Making the calculated damping coefficient does not meet the actual situation. Therefore, this paper calculates and analyzes the damping coefficient of water and soil resources in Beijing based on the existing problems in the current research on resource damping effect. The results show that the damping coefficients of water and land resources fluctuate around the economic growth. Due to the upgrading of industrial structure and intensive use of resources, The damping effect of water resources in Beijing gradually weakened since 2002. The damping effect of land resources has been alleviated during the period from 1998 to 2008, but after 2008, it began to fluctuate around the economic growth. After further study, it was concluded that due to technological progress, In the short term, resource constraints are alleviated. However, to finally solve the resource constraints, we must rely on factor substitution and industrial restructuring to work together. In addition, for resource-scarce regions, only utilizing external resources through market mechanisms is an effective way to solve the resource constraint.