论文部分内容阅读
目的了解和分析湖北省襄阳市襄州区1951-2013年及其不同历史阶段疟疾流行的周期规律和成因,为消除疟疾路径分析和验证工作提供依据。方法应用周期图法。通过试验周期配合实际序列的方法,寻找疟疾流行的隐含周期。结果襄州区1951-2013年疟疾年平均发病率为143.91/万,找出第一隐含周期为22年,周期振动检验有显著性统计学意义(J=4.842 9,P<0.01);第二隐含周期为23年(J=23.868 7,P<0.01)。其中,1951-1979年疟疾年平均发病率为352.55/万,未发现隐含周期(J=2.934 6,P>0.05);1980-2013年疟疾年平均发病率为10.63/万,隐含周期为14年(J=8.694 9,P<0.01)。结论襄阳市襄州区疟疾流行存在周期性,但不同阶段的周期规律不同,其抗疟措施的变化和群众防疟意识的高底是影响疟疾周期性流行的重要因素。
Objective To understand and analyze the periodicity and causes of malaria epidemic in Xiangzhou District, Xiangyang City, Hubei Province during 1951-2013 and its different historical periods, and provide a basis for eliminating malaria path analysis and verification. Method using the cycle diagram method. Through the experimental cycle with the actual sequence of methods to find the hidden period of malaria epidemic. Results The average annual incidence of malaria in Xiangzhou District from 1951 to 2013 was 143.91 / million. The first implicit period was 22 years and the periodic vibration test was statistically significant (J = 4.842 9, P <0.01). The first Two implicit period of 23 years (J = 23.868 7, P <0.01). The average annual incidence of malaria from 1951 to 1979 was 352.55 / million, no hidden cycle was found (J = 2.934 6, P> 0.05). The average incidence of malaria in 1980-2013 was 10.63 / 14 years (J = 8.694 9, P <0.01). Conclusion The epidemic of malaria in Xiangzhou district of Xiangyang City is cyclical, but the periodicity of different stages is different. The change of its anti-malaria measures and the elevation of the people’s awareness of malaria are the important factors that affect the cyclical epidemic of malaria.