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文章旨在考察制度距离对于两个国家之间签订双边投资条约(BITs)持续时间的影响作用,研究的对象是1970~2011年世界范围内签订的2769个BITs。采用生存分析模型,分别对签订BITs持续时间的对生存函数和风险率函数进行Kaplan-Meier非参数估计和Cox比例风险估计后得到结论,在90年代中期之前,制度距离较大的国家之间签订BITs的持续时间相对更短,制度距离较小的国家之间签订BITs的持续时间相对更长;而在90年代中期之后,制度距离较大的国家之间签订BITs的持续时间相对更长,制度距离较小的国家之间签订BITs的持续时间相对更短。此外还发现,影响签订BITs持续时间的因素在前后两个阶段存在差异。
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of institutional distance on the duration of BITs between two countries. The study is targeted at 2,769 BITs worldwide from 1970 to 2011. Survival analysis models were used to estimate Kaplan-Meier non-parametric and Cox proportional hazards estimates for survival and risk-rate functions for BIT durations respectively. Before the mid-1990s, countries with greater institutional distances were contracted The duration of BITs is relatively shorter and the duration of BITs between countries with smaller institutions is relatively longer; while the duration of BITs between countries with larger institutions is relatively longer after the mid-1990s, the system The duration of BITs between smaller countries is relatively shorter. In addition, it was found that the factors affecting the duration of signing BITs differed between the two previous stages.