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树流感即栎树猝死病(SOD)自从在美国发现以来,已经造成了美国加利福尼亚州树木大量死亡,并且扩散到了俄勒冈州。对树流感未来暴发风险区域的研究能够为树流感防控提供科学依据,同时为中国防治类似森林病虫害提供借鉴。联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会(IPCC)在第5次评估报告中指出,根据温室气体排放模式的不同未来气候变化有4种可能趋势。该研究基于现在的全球植被覆盖数据、过去的气候数据和未来4种不同排放模式下的气候数据,运用Maxent模型预测了北美西海岸地区在2000年、2050年、2070年树流感暴发风险区域。对预测结果的时空对比分析发现,北美西海岸地区未来树流感暴发高风险区域将会往北和西海岸地区扩张,在各种气候模式下扩张的情况不一样,其中相对于2000年,在RCP85排放模式下2070年北美西海岸地区的高风险区域将会增加174%。
Tree flu, the sudden death of oak disease (SOD), has been found in the United States since the United States has caused a large number of tree dead in California, and spread to Oregon. The study on the future risk of tree flu outbreak can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of tree flu, and provide reference for China to control similar forest pests and diseases. In the fifth assessment report, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that there are four possible trends in climate change in the future depending on the mode of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current global vegetation cover data, past climate data and climate data for the next four different emission models, the study used the Maxent model to predict the risk of tree flu outbreaks in the North American West Coast in 2000, 2050, and 2070. The spatio-temporal analysis of the prediction results shows that in the future, the high-risk area of tree flu outbreak in the west coast of North America will expand to the north and the west coast, and the expansion will not be the same in all kinds of climate models. Compared with 2000, High-risk areas in North America’s West Coast will increase by 174% in 2070.