中长期年径流预测是水利工程建设和工程后期运行管理的重要依据,而河川径流往往具有一定的随机特性,给工程优化调度带来了一定的复杂性和难度。文章以河川年径流量的随机变化过程为研究内容,结合实例,通过建立灰色拓扑预测模型,对河南省某水库中长期年入库径流量进行预测,检验结果表明,预测值与实际值误差较小,精度较高,具有很强的的操作性和应用价值,将来可为水库优化调度决策提供科学依据。 Mid-and long-term annual runoff forecasting is an important basis for water conservancy project construction and project operation and management. However, river runoff often has some random characteristics, which brings some complexity and difficulty to the project optimal scheduling. Taking the random change process of river annual runoff as the research content, this paper predicts the mid-term and long-term annual runoff of a reservoir in Henan Province through the establishment of a gray topological prediction model. The results show that the error between predicted value and actual value Small, high precision, has a strong operational and application value, in the future for the reservoir to provide a scientific basis for scheduling decisions.