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基于VEC模型,通过单位根检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,利用中国1985-2011年三个产业能源利用与经济增长相关数据,对经济增长和三个产业能源利用的长期均衡及动态关系进行了实证分析。结果发现经济增长是推动能源消费的主要动因;第一、二产业能耗应该继续适度的增长;第三产业能耗对经济增长具有长期协整作用,是未来中国经济增长的主要推动力。此外,本文还从能源投入结构、三个产业能源投入情况以及应对反弹效应的负面影响等方面提出了建议。
Based on the VEC model, through unit root test, cointegration test, impulse response analysis and analysis of variance decomposition, the author uses the data of energy consumption and economic growth of three industries in China from 1985 to 2011 to analyze the long-term equilibrium of economic growth and energy utilization in three industries And dynamic relationship between the empirical analysis. The results show that economic growth is the main driving force for energy consumption. The energy consumption of the primary and secondary industries should continue to grow modestly. The energy consumption of the tertiary industry has a long-term co-integration effect with economic growth and is the main driving force for China’s economic growth in the future. In addition, this article also puts forward suggestions on the structure of energy input, the energy input of the three industries and the negative impact of the rebound effect.