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从经济发展水平、人口数量、汽车保有量、道路情况等宏观因素入手,研究了国内外道路交通事故规律,分析了人均GDP与千人汽车保有量、万车死亡率、10万人口死亡率之间的关系。以宏观计量经济学和柯布-道格拉斯函数为基础,利用7个国家的历史数据构建了交通事故面板数据模型。分别采用固定效应模型和随机效应模型进行参数估计,并进行了Hausman检验,得到7个国家的交通事故宏观计量经济学模型。计算结果表明:在交通事故参数中,10万人口死亡率与人均GDP、人均道路长度呈正相关,与千人汽车保有量呈负相关;通过Hausman检验,自由度为3的卡方分布值为3.91,概率为0.02,小于0.05的置信区间;与随机效应模型相比,固定效应模型各变量的置信区间都小于0.05,拟合优度更好。可见,本文模型有效。
Starting with the macroscopic factors such as economic development level, population, car ownership and road conditions, the laws of road traffic accidents at home and abroad are studied. The per capita GDP and the number of car ownership per 1,000 people, the death toll of 10,000 vehicles and the mortality rate of 100,000 are analyzed Relationship between. Based on macroeconometrics and Cobb-Douglas function, the panel data model of traffic accident is constructed by using the historical data of seven countries. The stationary effect model and the stochastic effect model were used to estimate the parameters respectively, and the Hausman test was conducted to obtain the macroeconomic econometric models of traffic accidents in seven countries. The calculation results show that in the traffic accident parameters, the mortality rate of 100,000 population is positively correlated with the per capita GDP and the per capita road length, and negatively correlated with the car ownership of a thousand people. The Hausdorff test shows that the distribution of the chi-square with a degree of freedom of 3 is 3.91 , With a probability of 0.02 and less than 0.05. Compared with the random effects model, the confidence intervals of each variable of the fixed effects model are less than 0.05, and the goodness of fit is better. Visible, this model is valid.