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Africa’s storyline for 2014 was mainly dominated by tragic tales： Ebola， conflict and terrorist attacks. Still， other developments like growing ties with China and glimmers of economic growth provided positive signs for the continent.
Chinese premier’s four-country tour
One of the most pronounced events of the past year was Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit in May. His mission in Nigeria， Ethiopia， Angola and Kenya was to strengthen the growing relations between Africa and China， as well as pledge further investment in infrastructure. Kenya took the lion’s share of the visit with Li’s arrival in Nairobi on the last leg of his tour a godsend to the entire East African region financially. Three days of multilateral talks with leaders from Uganda， South Sudan and Rwanda saw 15 agreements and three memoranda of understanding on infrastructure.
Analysts say it is now up to the regional governments to make use of these agreements. The Chinese demonstrated their seriousness to boost the development agenda of the region because infrastructure is key， said Javas Bigambo， a consultant at Interthoughts Consulting， a regional think tank on public policy and governance. He added that it remains to be seen whether the same seriousness will be demonstrated by Africa’s governments. Commitment is needed to keep their part of the bargain and provide the necessary environment for these investments to be useful.
Africa’s economy and rebasing
Li’s visit coincided with impressive economic growth on the continent despite stumbling blocks. Global financial advisor and auditor Ernst and Young in its Private Equity Roundup： Africa， a series of reports focusing on emerging markets， said Africa had the highest number of economies growing at above 7 percent per annum. Interestingly， Africa’s trade with BRICS （Brazil， Russia， India， China and South Africa）， an emerging market， continued to grow， with China accounting for 60 percent of it in 2013 - about $225 billion. The report noted that while foreign direct investment had stalled in North Africa since 2007， Sub-Saharan Africa had benefited， with Ghana， Nigeria， Kenya， Tanzania， Mauritius， South Africa and Mozambique being the beneficiaries.
In April 2014， Nigeria overtook South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy. Africa’s most populous nation now has a gross domestic product （GDP） worth$509.9 billion， making it the 26th largest economy in the world. Though Nigeria， South Africa and Angola are the giants on the continent now， in October 2014， Kenya rebased its economy， increasing its GDP by 25.3 percent to $55.2 billion and becoming the ninth largest African economy. While rebasing provides updated data for investors to consider， the poor will not be rich overnight. It is just that your status is now more accurately defined， said Eric Musau， a senior research analyst at the Standard Investment Bank in Nairobi. Carlos Lopes， Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa， said this recalculation of the economy helps provide more accurate data， which in turn portrays the true potential of Africa. But while existing debt levels will seem more modest， fiscal revenue as a share of GDP will also decline. This is what well-informed foreign investors will look at， the UN official added. But Africa’s challenges remain large.
South Sudan returns to war
Barely three years after independence in 2011， South Sudan， the world’s youngest nation， is again mired in conflict. By the close of 2014， the UN estimated that 100，000 people had been killed， and 1.8 million displaced. The violence is a product of disagreement between President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar dating back to Decem-ber 2013. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development， a regional trade bloc that brings together eight countries including South Sudan， has been trying to help negotiate a peace deal in Addis Ababa. The group has been supported by the international community， including China， the European Union and the United States. Some observers think the conflict is due to personal ambitions. While both warring sides have agreed to an interim government， neither wants the other to be part of that provisional government. That shows each side wants to win and take it all， said Philip Kasaija， a professor of international politics at Kampala’s Makerere University.
Ebola ravages West Africa
While the East African region has endured a civil war in South Sudan， West Africa has suffered from a different kind of tragedy. The world’s worst Ebola pandemic has so far largely occurred in Guinea， Liberia and Sierra Leone. With more than 5，600 reported dead by the World Health Organization by November 2014， the world in general has been accused of turning a deaf ear to the cries of West Africa. Some analysts feel the epidemic reflects the global view on health. Ebola was initially just a health issue and health issues are rarely seen as international issues unless they become trans-boundary pandemics like AIDS. People imagined it would go away until the realization that the disease could turn up anywhere， said Peter Kagwanja， Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute， a Nairobi-based think tank. Ebola， which surfaced in Guinea in March， overwhelmed government healthcare systems. Foreigners fled and other countries instituted tough immigration measures to prevent its spread. Leaders are failing to come to grips with this transnational threat and treatment centers have been reduced to places where people go to die， Dr. Joanne Liu， President of medical charity group Medecins Sans Frontieres， told the UN Security Council in September. The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 2015 might have 500，000 new cases， both suspected and confirmed. What was initially a health disaster has now affected all aspects of life - the economy， social life， sports， with even medical response getting crippled， said Dr. David Gachanja， an economist at the Kenyatta University in Kenya. The World Bank has warned that the disease may have caused productivity loss of up to $359 million in 2014 alone in the three countries most affected.
The Pistorius murder trial
In September， South Africa’s Paralympic golden boy Oscar Pistorius was convicted of culpable homicide and sentenced to five years in jail for killing his model girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp on Valentine’s Day in 2013. It became one of the most high-profile murder trials in history. The athlete rejected the murder charge， saying he mistook Steenkamp for an intruder before firing at her four times. The trial lasted about six months， with every detail， emotion and expression beamed from the courtroom around the world to an insatiable watching public. The verdict by Judge Thokozile Masipa was criticized by some who demanded a tougher sentence. But lawyers had a different view. The judge looked only at the strength of the evidence. The law works not on emotion but on facts， said James Mwamu， President of East Africa Law Society. The prosecution has confirmed they will appeal the sentence， meaning Pistorius may be back in the headlines in 2015.
What 2015 holds
The International Monetary Fund （IMF） has reduced its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 5 percent from the earlier 5.5 percent based on the Ebola pandemic in West Africa and conflict in the region. The adjusted growth will be propelled by infrastructure investment， a buoyant services sector， and strong agriculture production. The IMF said the security situation in the Central African Republic and South Sudan， along with north Mali， north Nigeria and the coast of Kenya is of particular concern this year. Electricity shortages and labor unrest in South Africa could also be a growth damper.
On a positive note， South Africa will host the Sixth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation （FOCAC） in the third quarter of 2015. The new year is also the Year of China in South Africa， cementing growing cooperation between China， South Africa and the rest of the continent.
Chinese premier’s four-country tour
One of the most pronounced events of the past year was Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit in May. His mission in Nigeria， Ethiopia， Angola and Kenya was to strengthen the growing relations between Africa and China， as well as pledge further investment in infrastructure. Kenya took the lion’s share of the visit with Li’s arrival in Nairobi on the last leg of his tour a godsend to the entire East African region financially. Three days of multilateral talks with leaders from Uganda， South Sudan and Rwanda saw 15 agreements and three memoranda of understanding on infrastructure.
Analysts say it is now up to the regional governments to make use of these agreements. The Chinese demonstrated their seriousness to boost the development agenda of the region because infrastructure is key， said Javas Bigambo， a consultant at Interthoughts Consulting， a regional think tank on public policy and governance. He added that it remains to be seen whether the same seriousness will be demonstrated by Africa’s governments. Commitment is needed to keep their part of the bargain and provide the necessary environment for these investments to be useful.
Africa’s economy and rebasing
Li’s visit coincided with impressive economic growth on the continent despite stumbling blocks. Global financial advisor and auditor Ernst and Young in its Private Equity Roundup： Africa， a series of reports focusing on emerging markets， said Africa had the highest number of economies growing at above 7 percent per annum. Interestingly， Africa’s trade with BRICS （Brazil， Russia， India， China and South Africa）， an emerging market， continued to grow， with China accounting for 60 percent of it in 2013 - about $225 billion. The report noted that while foreign direct investment had stalled in North Africa since 2007， Sub-Saharan Africa had benefited， with Ghana， Nigeria， Kenya， Tanzania， Mauritius， South Africa and Mozambique being the beneficiaries.
In April 2014， Nigeria overtook South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy. Africa’s most populous nation now has a gross domestic product （GDP） worth$509.9 billion， making it the 26th largest economy in the world. Though Nigeria， South Africa and Angola are the giants on the continent now， in October 2014， Kenya rebased its economy， increasing its GDP by 25.3 percent to $55.2 billion and becoming the ninth largest African economy. While rebasing provides updated data for investors to consider， the poor will not be rich overnight. It is just that your status is now more accurately defined， said Eric Musau， a senior research analyst at the Standard Investment Bank in Nairobi. Carlos Lopes， Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa， said this recalculation of the economy helps provide more accurate data， which in turn portrays the true potential of Africa. But while existing debt levels will seem more modest， fiscal revenue as a share of GDP will also decline. This is what well-informed foreign investors will look at， the UN official added. But Africa’s challenges remain large.
South Sudan returns to war
Barely three years after independence in 2011， South Sudan， the world’s youngest nation， is again mired in conflict. By the close of 2014， the UN estimated that 100，000 people had been killed， and 1.8 million displaced. The violence is a product of disagreement between President Salva Kiir and his former deputy Riek Machar dating back to Decem-ber 2013. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development， a regional trade bloc that brings together eight countries including South Sudan， has been trying to help negotiate a peace deal in Addis Ababa. The group has been supported by the international community， including China， the European Union and the United States. Some observers think the conflict is due to personal ambitions. While both warring sides have agreed to an interim government， neither wants the other to be part of that provisional government. That shows each side wants to win and take it all， said Philip Kasaija， a professor of international politics at Kampala’s Makerere University.
Ebola ravages West Africa
While the East African region has endured a civil war in South Sudan， West Africa has suffered from a different kind of tragedy. The world’s worst Ebola pandemic has so far largely occurred in Guinea， Liberia and Sierra Leone. With more than 5，600 reported dead by the World Health Organization by November 2014， the world in general has been accused of turning a deaf ear to the cries of West Africa. Some analysts feel the epidemic reflects the global view on health. Ebola was initially just a health issue and health issues are rarely seen as international issues unless they become trans-boundary pandemics like AIDS. People imagined it would go away until the realization that the disease could turn up anywhere， said Peter Kagwanja， Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute， a Nairobi-based think tank. Ebola， which surfaced in Guinea in March， overwhelmed government healthcare systems. Foreigners fled and other countries instituted tough immigration measures to prevent its spread. Leaders are failing to come to grips with this transnational threat and treatment centers have been reduced to places where people go to die， Dr. Joanne Liu， President of medical charity group Medecins Sans Frontieres， told the UN Security Council in September. The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates 2015 might have 500，000 new cases， both suspected and confirmed. What was initially a health disaster has now affected all aspects of life - the economy， social life， sports， with even medical response getting crippled， said Dr. David Gachanja， an economist at the Kenyatta University in Kenya. The World Bank has warned that the disease may have caused productivity loss of up to $359 million in 2014 alone in the three countries most affected.
The Pistorius murder trial
In September， South Africa’s Paralympic golden boy Oscar Pistorius was convicted of culpable homicide and sentenced to five years in jail for killing his model girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp on Valentine’s Day in 2013. It became one of the most high-profile murder trials in history. The athlete rejected the murder charge， saying he mistook Steenkamp for an intruder before firing at her four times. The trial lasted about six months， with every detail， emotion and expression beamed from the courtroom around the world to an insatiable watching public. The verdict by Judge Thokozile Masipa was criticized by some who demanded a tougher sentence. But lawyers had a different view. The judge looked only at the strength of the evidence. The law works not on emotion but on facts， said James Mwamu， President of East Africa Law Society. The prosecution has confirmed they will appeal the sentence， meaning Pistorius may be back in the headlines in 2015.
What 2015 holds
The International Monetary Fund （IMF） has reduced its growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 5 percent from the earlier 5.5 percent based on the Ebola pandemic in West Africa and conflict in the region. The adjusted growth will be propelled by infrastructure investment， a buoyant services sector， and strong agriculture production. The IMF said the security situation in the Central African Republic and South Sudan， along with north Mali， north Nigeria and the coast of Kenya is of particular concern this year. Electricity shortages and labor unrest in South Africa could also be a growth damper.
On a positive note， South Africa will host the Sixth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation （FOCAC） in the third quarter of 2015. The new year is also the Year of China in South Africa， cementing growing cooperation between China， South Africa and the rest of the continent.