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[目的 /意义]针对中国新闻出版研究院开展的全民阅读调查存在数据滞后的缺点,通过数据预测分析结果,为文化、教育、新闻、出版等部门进行文化供给侧改革与规划设计提供依据和重要参考。[方法 /过程]运用灰色预测模型,对2008-2014年全民阅读调查相关数据进行预测分析;经验证预测精度后,采用“新陈代谢灰色系统”改进模型再预测出2016-2023年相关数据。[结果/结论]将2015年预测值与2015年实际调查值相比较,证明预测精度为优,表明通过系列模型预测的相关数据具有可靠性、实用性和创新性,可达到为相关部门提供依据和参考的要求。
[Purpose / Significance] According to the fact that there is a lag of data lag in the nationwide reading survey carried out by the China Press and Publication Research Institute, the data forecast and analysis results provide the basis and important for cultural, education, news and publication departments to carry out cultural supply-side reform and planning and design reference. [Method / Process] The gray prediction model was used to predict the data of the survey of people reading from 2008 to 2014. After the accuracy of the prediction was verified, the data of 2016-2023 were predicted using the improved model of “Metabolic gray system”. [Results / Conclusions] Comparing the 2015 forecast with the 2015 actual survey shows that the forecast accuracy is excellent, indicating that the relevant data predicted by the series of models are reliable, practicable and innovative and can provide the basis for the relevant departments And reference requirements.