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利用江苏有记录以来的农业气象资料,分析发现江苏水稻适宜移栽期与播栽期≥10℃有效积温间存在极显著的正相关关系,因此,可通过有效积温确定适宜移栽期。根据海气相互作用原理,基于遥相关方法,寻找有效积温的海温响应相关区,应用最优相关技术和空间拓扑分析法,筛选出高相关海温预报因子,并通过稳定性和独立性检验,确保海温预报因子的可靠性,最终建立水稻适宜移栽期的长期预报模型,经过历史拟合和试报检验,预报模型效果理想,至少可提前半个月预报出水稻适宜移栽的日期,预报结果对农业生产具有重要的实用价值。
Based on the agricultural meteorological data recorded in Jiangsu Province, it was found that there was a significant positive correlation between suitable transplanting period of Jiangsu rice and the effective accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ at sowing date. Therefore, suitable transplanting period could be determined by effective accumulated temperature. According to the principle of sea-air interaction, based on the teleconnection method, the correlation area of sea surface temperature (SST) of effective accumulated temperature is found out. Based on the optimal correlation technique and spatial topological analysis method, the SST factor is screened out, and through the stability and independence test , To ensure the reliability of the SST factor and ultimately to establish a long-term forecasting model suitable for rice transplanting. After the historical fitting test and the test report test, the forecasting model is effective and can predict the date suitable for transplanting rice by at least half a month The forecast results have important practical value for agricultural production.