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自2008年美国金融危机爆发以来,中国房地产价格不断上涨,伴随着高CPI的是房价的一路走高,CPI与房地产价格的长期走势表现出了一致性。因而研究两者之间的相互关系,能够增进对资产价格与物价间关联的理解,有助于有关当局政策的制定与执行,从而维护经济的稳定与房地产市场的良性发展。本文在结合了西方经济学界与国内学者的研究成果的基础上,对房地产价格的长期走势与通货膨胀间的相关性进行了理论研究与实证分析。首先对我国房地产市场现状与通货膨胀的状况进行了概述,并分析了国内外学术界对两者间关系的看法。然后,从理论上分析房地产价格长期走势与CPI之间相互作用的具体机制。继而,选取了2010年6月到2016年9月的相关数据,运用协整检验对其展开实证分析,其结果表明在长期两者间存在正向相关关系。最后,本文将理论分析与实际经济情况相结合,提出了一系列建议。
Since the outbreak of the U.S. financial crisis in 2008, real estate prices in China have been on the rise. Along with the high CPI, housing prices have been rising all the way. The long-term trend of CPI and real estate prices shows consistency. Therefore, the study of the correlation between the two can enhance the understanding of the correlation between the asset price and the price, and help the formulation and implementation of the policy of the relevant authorities so as to safeguard the economic stability and the healthy development of the real estate market. Based on the research achievements of the western economics and domestic scholars, this paper conducts theoretical research and empirical analysis on the correlation between the long-term trend of real estate prices and inflation. First of all, the status quo of China’s real estate market and the situation of inflation are summarized, and the views of domestic and foreign academics on the relationship between the two are analyzed. Then, from the theoretical analysis of the specific mechanism of long-term real estate prices and the interaction between the CPI. Then, the data from June 2010 to September 2016 are selected, and an empirical analysis of the data using cointegration test shows that there is a positive correlation between them in the long run. Finally, this article combines the theoretical analysis with the actual economic situation, put forward a series of suggestions.