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自2012年6月初猪价创新低以来,反弹极其疲弱,累计涨幅不及3%;由于养殖盈利低位徘徊(连续8周头均盈利低于50元),仔猪价格出现补跌,同期跌幅超过10%。未来猪周期底部、顶部特征预测:猪价、养殖盈利季度分布特征。预计猪周期底部出现在2013年1季度,平均猪价12.1元/千克,猪粮比降至5.01∶1、每头平均亏损
The rebound has been extremely weak with a cumulative gain of less than 3% since the hog price hit an all-time low in early June 2012. Due to the low breeding profitability (with a profit of less than 50% for 8 consecutive weeks), piglet prices plummeted over the same period by more than 10% . The future of the pig cycle at the bottom, the top of the feature prediction: pig prices, breeding quarterly distribution of earnings characteristics. The bottom of the pig cycle is expected to appear in the first quarter of 2013 with an average pork price of 12.1 yuan / kg and the pig food ratio dropped to 5.01: 1 with an average loss per head