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为科学地确定航空公司不安全事件的处罚机制,推动民航的国家安全监督,从航空公司与监管部门之间的博弈机理出发,构建了航空公司不安全事件处罚的演化博弈模型。采用系统动力学方法仿真分析模型的演化趋势。仿真结果显示,当采用静态的混合策略时,模型模拟的曲线不稳定呈现围绕中心振荡的波动性;采用与违规收益变动相适应的动态处罚策略可以有效抑制波动性,增加航空公司按章办事的概率;加大处罚力度可以有效地控制航空公司的违章概率,但处罚力度应适宜,防止监管部门过于信任高处罚力度的作用而放松监管;加大奖励额度,增加监管次数,可以明显地提高航空公司按章办事的比例。监管部门应建立与奖励相结合的问责制度,同时通过技术创新、加强内部运行控制等方法提高监管频率。
In order to scientifically determine the penalty mechanism of airlines ’unsafe incidents and promote civil aviation’s national security supervision, an evolutionary game model of airlines’ insecurity event penalties is constructed from the game theory between airlines and regulators. The system dynamics method is used to simulate and analyze the evolution trend of the model. The simulation results show that when the static hybrid strategy is adopted, the curve of the model simulation shows the volatility around the central oscillation. By adopting the dynamic penalty strategy that adapts to the change of illegal gains, the volatility can be effectively restrained and the airline companies can work in accordance with the rules Probability; to increase penalties can effectively control the probability of violation of airlines, but the punishment should be appropriate to prevent the regulatory authorities over-trust the role of high penalties and relaxed supervision; increase incentives and increase the number of supervision can significantly improve aviation The proportion of the company according to the rules. Regulatory authorities should establish a system of accountability combined with reward, and at the same time, increase the frequency of supervision through technological innovation and strengthening internal operation control.