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为了定量评估江淮地区夏玉米涝渍灾害和揭示其时空分布特征,基于1961—2013年91个观测站点的日雨量数据,耦合夏玉米生育期和涝渍灾情数据,统计夏玉米不同生育时段、不同涝渍等级的灾害样本,采用偏相关分析、多元线性回归、正态性检验、区间估计等方法,构建了基于有效降雨量的夏玉米分生育时段涝渍灾害的等级指标,并验证了指标的合理性;分析了区域1961—2010年夏玉米涝渍灾害的时空分布和风险分布。结果表明:夏玉米涝渍灾害等级与当前涝渍过程降雨量和前2旬逐旬降雨量呈显著正相关;同一等级涝渍灾害,拔节-抽雄期指标阈值最高,抽雄-成熟期的次之,出苗-拔节期的最低;20世纪70年代涝渍灾害的发生有所减少,80年代后又逐渐增多;涝渍灾害的多发区主要分布在沿江、沿淮、沿湖和沿海地区,且随着生育进程的增加,多发区总体随雨带北移;近50年来出苗至抽雄阶段涝渍灾害的发生总体上呈增加趋势,抽雄至成熟阶段则以减少趋势为主;随着生育进程的增加,涝渍灾害风险指数的高值区逐渐由西南向东北移动。
In order to quantitatively evaluate the summer maize waterlogging disasters in the Jianghuai region and to reveal its spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, based on the daily rainfall data of 91 observation stations from 1961 to 2013, the data of summer maize growth period and waterlogging disaster were analyzed. The indexes of waterlogging disaster during the period of childbearing of summer maize based on effective rainfall were constructed by the methods of partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, normality test and interval estimation. Rationality. The spatial and temporal distribution and risk distribution of summer corn waterlogging disaster in the region from 1961 to 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that the level of summer maize waterlogging disaster was significantly and positively correlated with the rainfall of the current waterlogging process and the rainfall of the first 2 days and the last 10 days. The index of the same level of waterlogging disaster and jointing-tasselling was the highest, followed by the tasselling-maturity , The lowest in emergence and jointing stage. The incidence of waterlogging disasters decreased in the 1970s and gradually increased in the 1980s. The flood prone areas are mainly distributed along the Yangtze River, along the Huaihe River, along the lake and in the coastal areas. The incidence of waterlogging disasters increased from the emergence to the tasselling stage in the past 50 years, while the decreasing trend was the main trend from tasseling to maturity. With the increase of the reproductive process , The high value area of waterlogging disaster risk index gradually moves from southwest to northeast.