目的应用移动平均指数法对某院的门诊量和出院人数进行分析和预测。方法收集某院2008年-2014年各季度的门诊量和出院人数数据,运用移动平均季节指数法对数据进行分析,并预测2015年医院各季度的门诊量和出院人数。结果该院门诊量和出院人次每年呈增长趋势。对2015年各季度门诊量预测值范围为195133~213539、196450~222753、197757~218118、1187880~220423;2015年各季度出院人数预测值范围为17980~18864、18447~19266、18693~19670、19049~20074。结论移动平均季节指数法计算简单科学,预测效果好,能为医院的卫生资源配置和管理决策提供科学的依据。 Objective To analyze and predict the outpatient and outpatient numbers of a hospital by using the moving average index method. Methods Outpatient and discharge data of a hospital from 2008 to 2014 were collected. The data were analyzed using the moving average seasonal index method, and the outpatients and outpatients in each quarter of 2015 were predicted. Results The hospital outpatient amount and discharge rate showed an increasing trend each year. The predicted value of outpatients in each quarter of 2015 ranged from 195133 to 213539, 196450 to 222753, 197757 to 218118 and 1187880 to 220423 respectively. The predicted numbers of discharges in each quarter of 2015 ranged from 17980 to 18864, 18447 to 19266, 18693 to 19670 and 19049 ~ 20074. Conclusion The moving average seasonal index method is simple and scientific, and has good prediction effect. It can provide a scientific basis for the hospital health resource allocation and management decision-making.