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近几年来,中国房地产价格的快速上涨,已经超出了居民的可忍受程度。房地产价格严重偏离其均衡价格水平,会对国民经济造成严重的负面影响。笔者首先分析了房地产价格上涨的成因及危害,然后通过指标法、因素回归法和局部均衡法测度了2004年以来中国内陆各地区的房地产价格偏离均衡价格情况,研究发现:2004年~2013年中国房价呈现直线上涨趋势,房价在地区间存在集聚自相关效应。房价高的东部沿海地区比房价低的中西部地区偏离均衡水平程度更加严重。
In recent years, the rapid rise of real estate prices in China has exceeded the tolerable level of residents. Real estate prices seriously deviate from their equilibrium price levels, will have a serious negative impact on the national economy. The author first analyzes the causes and the harms of the real estate price increase, and then measures the deviation of the real estate prices from the equilibrium prices in different regions of China since 2004 through the index method, the factor regression method and the partial equilibrium method, and finds that from 2004 to 2013 China’s housing prices showed a straight-line upward trend, housing prices in the region there is a concentration of auto-correlation effect. The eastern coastal areas with high prices deviate more than the equilibrium from the central and western regions with low prices.