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在地根经济中,土地是重要的宏观调控工具。近年来,土地财政和地方政府债务问题引起了学界广泛的讨论,却鲜有研究单独讨论土地的杠杆性质及其风险特征。本文以地方政府为例,在一个合约理论的框架下探讨了该问题。研究发现:土地资产的增加不仅提高了地方政府的负债水平,还将导致其杠杆率上升,此即杠杆放大效应;该效应通过收益渠道和风险渠道同时发生作用,使地方政府项目终止的概率增大,且在终止状态下使整个经济遭受更大损失。进一步研究还发现,该放大效应关于土地递增,并随土地价格上涨进一步增强。最后,基于融资平台财务数据的实证分析支持了以上结论。本文建议:采取综合手段保持土地价格稳定,并对地方政府及其下属的土地储备中心实行土地抵押比例上限管理;涉及土地供给的调控政策应当审慎操作等。
In the root economy, land is an important macro-control tool. In recent years, the issue of land finance and local government debts has caused extensive discussion in academia. However, few studies have discussed separately the leverage nature of land and its risk characteristics. Taking local government as an example, this paper explores the issue under the framework of a contract theory. The study finds that the increase of land assets not only increases the level of debt of local governments, but also leads to the increase of the leverage ratio, which is the leverage effect. This effect can simultaneously increase the probability of termination of local government projects through the channels of income and risk Large, and in the termination of the whole economy suffered greater losses. Further research also found that the amplification effect on the increase of land, and with further increases in land prices. Finally, the empirical analysis based on the financial data of the financing platform supports the above conclusion. This article suggests: to take an integrated approach to maintain land price stability, and the local government and its subordinate land reserve center to implement the upper limit of the proportion of land mortgage; land supply control policies should be handled prudently.