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在群体性事件中,民众组织程度的提升是否会导致冲突升级乃至暴力化?通过对1189个群体性案例的统计分析发现:群体性事件中的组织程度与其暴力程度高度相关,但呈负相关。也就是说,群体性事件中的组织程度与其暴力程度之间是反比关系,暴力化的群体性事件更容易发生在低组织程度状态下。实际上,有组织的表达活动更容易强化行动风险、责任及其坐实的认知与评估机制,这有助于集体行动的自我约束。如果被抗议者和政府能够理性回应民众的抗议行动,民众有组织的表达和抗议活动就更易于和平、理性和有序。就此而言,社会秩序稳定的基础,在于民众的组织化而非碎片化。因此,应当深入反思和科学评估新时代民众集体行动组织化与其暴力性的关系,调整相关法律和政策。
In the mass incidents, whether the promotion of the mass organizations will lead to the escalation or even violentization of conflicts? Through the statistical analysis of 1189 group cases, it is found that the degree of organization in mass incidents is highly correlated with the level of their violence but negatively correlated. In other words, there is an inverse relationship between the degree of organization in mass incidents and the level of violence. Violent mass incidents are more likely to occur at a low level of organization. In fact, organized expressions of expression make it easier to reinforce the operational risks, responsibilities and their real-life cognitive and assessment mechanisms, which contribute to the self-restraint of collective action. If the protesters and the government can rationally respond to public protests, organized public protests and protests will be easier and more peaceful, rational and orderly. In this regard, the basis for the stable social order lies in the organization of the people rather than the fragmentation. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply reflect on and scientifically evaluate the relationship between the organization of mass collective action and its violence in the new era and to adjust relevant laws and policies.